Inside Politics - December 2002

The Political Outlook

What’s Ahead for 2003 and Beyond?

by Michael Sullivan

As the dust settles on Election 2002, both parties are getting ready to do battle in what may be one of the most important Nevada legislative sessions in several decades.

At stake is literally the future of the Silver State, as a rising budget deficit will force the governor and legislators to make cuts and look for new sources of funding. The big question on everyone’s mind, however, is whether that new source of funding will include tax increases.

Hardly anyone close to the situation argues that something must be done. The state will be hundreds of millions in debt by the end of this fiscal year, and there just isn’t enough fat in the budget to cover that kind of shortfall.

What will be interesting to watch is the politics associated with this whole issue. Will the inveterate "no taxes at any cost" Republican legislators be swayed by the leader of their own party, Governor Kenny Guinn, who has already said his re-election was a mandate for tax increases?

Under Nevada law, a two-thirds vote of both houses is required to pass any tax increase. That puts the power to defeat any legislation in the hands of only a few elected officials. They will no doubt be under intense pressure by their colleagues and others to pass whatever proposal is hammered out by Senate and Assembly leadership. Will they fall in line?

The recent election and defection of one Democratic Senator leaves the Republicans with a solid 13-8 advantage in the Senate. Senator Bill Raggio, the majority leader, has not tipped his hand yet. He’s unlikely to promote any large-scale tax increases, and has said he favors changing the tax formula to allow the state to keep more of the money that now goes to local governments.

Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins has said education funding will be a top priority for the Assembly Democrats, who hold a 23-19 edge in the lower house. But only a major miracle could find more money for Nevada’s schools without some kind of tax increase.

There’s not enough space in this column to go into all the tax proposals now being floated, but one thing’s for sure. For those who thought last session’s reapportionment battle was tough – you ain’t seen nothing yet.

The calendar may show that it’s still 2002, but candidates are already shaping up for the 2006 Governor’s race. Kenny Guinn will be constitutionally prevented from running for another term, so the seat will be open.

Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson was forced into announcing his candidacy a bit earlier than he might have wanted. A confidential memo from his son to potential campaign supporters stating the mayor’s intention to run for the seat was leaked to the press. That opened a barrage of names being tossed around as potential contenders for the office.

Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins, who has quietly been moving toward that goal, would be a formidable foe for Gibson. Both represent Henderson, and are said to be friends. Senate Minority Leader Dina Titus has also expressed interest and would be tough to beat in a Democratic primary.

On the Republican side, newly-elected Attorney General Brian Sandoval is already getting some encouragement to think about running, as is County Commissioner-elect Mark James. But a real bombshell on the GOP side could drop if U.S. Senator John Ensign decides to forgo an almost certain re-election and instead run for the governor’s job.

This race will be a fun one to follow in the coming years.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan is president of Knight Consulting, a Southern Nevada government affairs firm.