Inside Politics - September 2003

The 2004 Elections

Preparing for a Perfect Political Storm

by Scott Craigie

The 2004 primary election is just one year away, which doesn’t allow much time for Nevada’s Gang of 63 to recover.

Incumbency has never made reelection a sure thing; in fact, during times of great controversy, Nevada’s incumbent legislators have proven to be extremely vulnerable. Freshmen – 20 strong in this session – are the most endangered. They have the least accumulated goodwill, and lack experience surviving tough elections.

In 1991, year of the dreaded Business Activity Tax, fully 13 of the 23 freshmen legislators failed to be reelected. And that cycle was cheesecake compared to this one.

The 2004 election cycle, culminating a biennium full of political confrontations, could be conducted in a "Perfect Storm" environment – overwhelming even the mightiest Nevada officeholder.

Numerous items on the 2004 ballot will drive a stressed, angry electorate to the polls. Examples: George Harris’ referendum aimed at eradicating all new taxes approved by this Legislature. Initiative Petition One, the battle among physicians, patients and trial lawyers, will deliver thousands of emotionally wrought voters on all sides to the polls. Jim Gibbons’ "Education First" initiative, which puts education funding ahead of all other appropriations and destroys future efforts to hold education hostage to tax bills. Recall petitions may also be voted on, if this summer’s threats are actually carried out.

Each of these movements is motivated by antagonism and resentment. Anger doesn’t inspire votes for incumbents. It feeds a "throw ’em out" fever.

Months of nasty election campaigns will further contribute to this powerful anti-incumbent sentiment. Bitterness will blossom over the tax wars, legislative deadlocks, the long cycle of special sessions and court fights, the disruption in our schools, newly approved pay raises for elected officials and public employees in this weak economy and the large and growing number of public employees already earning over $100,000 salaries, to name just a few of the divisive issues.

This may read like an obituary for the Democrats’ 20 years of dominance in the Assembly and the end of Speaker Richard Perkins’ gubernatorial hopes. Don’t jump to conclusions. This is a four-year fight. And near-term setbacks often improve long-term prospects. They motivate the base and set the stage for long-term success.

Here are two examples: The Nevada Supreme Court’s out-of-the-blue decision to trash the Nevada Constitution’s supermajority requirement created by Jim Gibbons’ voter initiative supercharged the conservative base. It will rally conservative voters come Election Day. Clearly the actions of 15 Assembly Republican holdouts delighted their supporters, but those same GOP holdouts created opportunity for education leaders. To be sure, the "fully fund education" base was supercharged by the savvy and skilled crisis management of Clark County Schools Superintendent Carlos Garcia and the thunderous rollout of activities managed by the Nevada State PTA.

Parents and the greater education community have always represented a sleeping giant in Nevada elections. That proved to be true for Nevada’s property tax cap Question Six, sister of California’s Proposition 13. More than two-thirds of Nevada voters in every single Assembly district voted "Yes" for the limitation in 1978. Needing to pass in two consecutive elections, the Question returned in 1980 and, thanks to parents and others concerned about the impact on education, Question Six was killed, an historic turn-around.

Now, if you are confused, if you cannot see clearly who the winner of this year’s horrendous tax/spend civil war really is – that’s good. It’s a jump ball right now, and could go either way.

The side that understands this is a two-election cycle war is most likely to prevail. If one side overreaches, it could kill its own crusade. Winning the end game – taking the Governor’s mansion and building a legislative majority that lasts – requires winning with patience and moderation in this first round.

Scott Craigie
Scott Craigie served as Governor Bob Miller’s Chief of Staff through three regular legislative sessions. He currently is a legislative lobbyist representing numerous business interests.