Inside Politics - August 2005

The Race for Governor

Contenders Jostle for Position

by Michael Sullivan

If the 2005 legislative session showed us anything about next year’s race for governor of Nevada, it is that the race to succeed Kenny Guinn is more in flux than ever.

Before the Legislature, the gubernatorial field was rather solid: Congressman Jim Gibbons on the Republican side and Assembly Speaker Richard Perkins on the Democratic side. At the time, most experts believed State Senator Dina Titus, D-Las Vegas, who had initially expressed interest in the race, would fold or be talked into another seat, clearing the way for Perkins.

But Titus, the Senate minority leader, made it very clear in the session’s first months that she was in the race to stay, and could not be swayed by offers from the establishment to back her for nearly every other seat on the ballot, from County Commission to Congress against incumbent Jon Porter. Her insistence created a tense dynamic in the Democratic leadership, with Titus and Perkins pushing different agendas.

On the Republican side, Gibbons was clearly the front runner, but quickly ran into trouble when it was discovered a speech he gave to business leaders in Elko was plagiarized from one previously given by an elected official in another state. The black eye put a bit of tarnish on the Gibbons campaign, and he quickly withdrew from the public spotlight for a time, letting the press frenzy settle.

Lieutenant Governor Lorraine Hunt, who had always said she was interested in running to remove the "Lt." from her title, began making even more definitive statements that she was in the race. Insiders had never considered her as serious competition for Gibbons, but the theory was, she might make him spend extra dollars that he otherwise could stockpile if he had no primary.

Senator Bob Beers also recently announced he’ll run for the Republican nomination. It’s unclear where Beers plans to get the millions of dollars needed to run an effective campaign, but his positions on smaller government and against taxes are likely to take votes away from Gibbons if he can make any headway.

The most significant factor on the GOP side, however, was the emergence of University System Chancellor (and wealthy television mogul) Jim Rogers as a possible contender to Gibbons and Hunt. The well-spoken and straight-shooting Rogers has not made it official yet, but is telling insiders he is strongly considering getting into the race. He is not a Gibbons fan and is getting considerable nudging from current Gov. Guinn (also a strong foe of Gibbons). If he would be willing to spend some of his considerable fortune on the race, it could change everything.

Opinion polls taken before and during the session show Gibbons with a significant lead over all challengers. His strengths are northern and rural Nevada, but he has also shown surprising numbers in Clark County, which is only a small portion of his congressional district. Some experts have wondered whether confusion with Henderson Mayor Jim Gibson may have contributed to Gibbons’ popularity numbers in Clark County.

While Perkins has trailed in all recent polls, his campaign insists that a year and a half away from a general election is far too early to be predicting winners. They also point out that Gibbons’ negatives have been steadily increasing as voters get to know more about him.

One name that has been floated, and competes favorably with Gibbons in most polls, is Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman. His Honor’s favorable name recognition in Clark County is seen as a huge plus in beating Gibbons. The question has always been, how well would he do in other parts of the state?

Goodman would have to beat Gibbons by a considerable majority in Clark County to make up for not doing well in northern and rural Nevada. That means he would have to get crossover Republican support. However, some pundits feel that Goodman’s career of fighting against the federal government as a lawyer may have appeal in other parts of Nevada, where the feds aren’t viewed all that favorably.

Goodman has never ruled out getting into the race, but those who know him well feel he’s very comfortable where he is. It’s unclear what would get him into the race, but with the current crowded primary field, he’s likely to stay on the sidelines and throw his support to one of the challengers.

Reporters are salivating over the chance for a real election for governor, since the last two candidates for the office have been able to clear the field before the race even started. It’s highly likely that this time, they will get their wish.

Michael Sullivan
Michael Sullivan is president of Knight Consulting, a Southern Nevada government affairs firm.